The sheer brilliance of the Portfolios being in cash

Congratulations to all at MF with the Portfolios being in cash over a very volatile last week or so.
I know of several people with Pensions investments, who have had serious reversals of fortune over these recent days. There is only one answer to volatility & the uncertain dynamics of markets - MARKETSFLOW!!!

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I can attest to my pension being allocated to index tracker funds and getting hammered by the ongoing onslaught! I think this period of prudence during difficult and stressful situations will reflect well during the next funding round and amongst clients / investors.

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The question is - is it still in cash?

Any losses I incurred the last week I already recovered by now in my investments elsewhere.

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It would be great to have an update on this - I check my account once a day at the moment and no change would suggest no investment taking place at all.

See @paul_mf’s latest response (at the time of writing) to me on this thread

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Something I’ve noted (perhaps erroneously but I’d welcome others’ thoughts) is that, on the basis of daily performance, my ISA portfolio often tends to limit losses (i.e. outperforms the index when the S&P500 is in the red) whilst not fully capturing the upside of index movements (i.e. underperforming when the S&P500 increases positively).

There is clearly serious value in the MarketsFlow AI system in this (risk-averse) regard but I wonder what more can be done to capitalise on positive market movements especially if it is human-based ‘engineering biases’ (as opposed to unintentional, emergent phenomena) that leads to these trends.

Again, my conclusions may be erroneously deduced and these observations could just be peculiar to the ISA portfolio as opposed to the other two portfolios.

In any case, would be keen to hear others’ thoughts.

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A bit of a bloodbath in the Monday markets - made for a very comforting feeling knowing that the Portfolios were in cash from Friday the 21st February!

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At the same time though we haven’t captured any of the upside for the past 3 months. My account size has stayed the same since November, whilst markets were breaking new ground almost every week

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Yeah, with FreeTrade I had 15% gains in the five weeks before the meltdown, and am now only at 3% profit - but a profit nevertheless. Going into cash is good to shield from the downside, but then need to capture the upside as well.

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I would like to use this opportunity to share my performance chart with all of you. It shows the performance of my portfolio since I started on June 4th, 2019. The fees are included in the chart, bonuses are not. Maybe it’s interesting for you to see.
It’s a pity that we missed out on the steep increase since October, but at the same time we lost less than 1% during the Corona crash. Personally, I think I will use Marketsflow as a stabilizing factor in my portfolio, similar to people adding gold or bonds to their portfolios.

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I think it’s also worth comparing the MarketsFlow YTD performance to the S&P 500 YTD performance which is currently pretty favourable.

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As investors, the key point is that we all know MarketsFlow’s performance over the coming weeks and throughout this year will determine whether it becomes a multi-billion dollar/pound company or not.

Agree, but as I stated previously with another recent dip when MF went into cash, it’s not just about getting out on time, it’s also about getting back in.

I appreciate that markets remain highly volatile with VIX still high, that corona is spreading in the west and it’s economic impact is not yet understood, but with my broker I have been selectively buying shares left, right and centre at 20% discounts.

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Agreed and I wonder whether that’s a fundamental aspect of the AI-system as it was engineered or whether it’ll naturally improve as it has more time to learn from the real data (having still only been live for a relatively short period of time). In either case, the proprietary technology seems to have a reasonably solid foundation from which to operate and build upon.

True, and staying in cash would be the wise thing to do. I don’t think we have hit bottom yet given that we don’t know the extend of Corona in the West and even less so it’s economic impact. I foresee another dip coming soon.

However, it’s not a bad time to dip your toes back in and selectively pick stocks, in case the double dip doesn’t materialise. I am not YOLO-ing it and going all guns blazing, but likewise fully standing on the sideline seems odd.

I got AMD at 24% discount and am already up nearly 5%. Shopify at nearly 20% discount, Microsoft at 12%, square at 8% and the list goes on. All in all sunk £9k into stocks late last week, most are slightly up. Even if the double dip materialises, over time it will wash out.

It’s great that the system twice went into cash before a dip, but it needs to go back in on time as well.

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I think it’s still too early for me - I’m going to delay any such selective purchasing on discount until the second half of the year.

I think mid summer we will be back to where we were. Call me a crazy optimist. Historically, viral outbreaks like SARS, swine flu, etc have seen a very sharp V rebound once cases started to drop. Better weather allegedly will significant limit corona’s ability to spread.

But it’s the perfect time for another exogenous shock to create a recipe for disaster. Covid-19 is just one of my considerations when considering the repo markets and the Fed’s repo operations being in a particularly strange situation.

Bernie Sanders seems to be on the slide after Supee Tuesday and he was deemed a major risk to USA economy. Yet fundamentals of the US economy seem strong, although Europe is more of a basket case.

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Happy days for MarketsFlow investors.
I really think you should use the opportunity to start some marketing effort and give interviews to promote MarketsFlow showing how you were able to stay almost completely unaffected by the current crash. People are looking for save havens right now.

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